The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week, influenced by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, crucial global macroeconomic data, and the escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to market analysts.
Highlights of the RBI monetary policy.
Reserve Bank of India Governor D Subbarao on Friday increased mandatory cash reserve of banks held by RI by 75 basis points (0.75 per cent) in a bid to suck excess liquidity to combat rising inflation.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economic growth to slow to 6.6 per cent in FY27, down from 7.7 per cent in FY26, citing energy stress and a potential sub-par monsoon.
"It is heartening to note that the RBI has chosen growth over monetary tightening and inflationary fears," FICCI president Harsh Pati Singhania said.
The RBI on Thursday hiked key policy rates for the 10th time since March, 2010, in a bid to tame inflation, which crossed the 9 per cent mark in May.
The RBI Governor, however, added it was 'difficult to say when that will take place and in what shape it will roll out'.
Let's wait for the monetary policy on February 8 -- to see how it complements the fiscal commitments, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June, driven primarily by costlier food items, pushing it above the Reserve Bank of India's median target of 4 per cent for the first time under the new series.
The central bank was widely expected to maintain status quo.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its benchmark policy rate at 5.25 per cent for the fourth consecutive meeting, prioritising clarity on inflation trends, particularly concerning energy costs and geopolitical developments.
'Existing borrowers who have surplus cash should make partial loan prepayments to offset the impact of rising EMIs and reduce the overall interest burden.'
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
This may point to the beginning of a rising role of whistleblowers in aiding stock-market policing amid the rapid expansion in capital markets in recent years.
After a significant 9.9% depreciation in FY26, the Indian rupee has shown comparative stability in the first half of FY27, depreciating by only 1.1%, attributed to regulatory interventions and measures to attract foreign capital, despite ongoing global pressures from rising crude oil prices and foreign investor outflows.
Indian stock market benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty, saw gains in early trading, driven by anticipation surrounding the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, despite mixed global cues and significant FII outflows.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has picked former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, Harvard University economics Professor Raj Chetty and Microsoft XBOX CEO Asha Sharma to be part of task forces constituted to examine the central bank's approach to monetary policy and propose transformational changes.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed nearly flat on Thursday, influenced by the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and indications of further monetary tightening. Despite some intraday gains, caution prevailed, with foreign institutional investors continuing to offload equities. Meanwhile, the National Stock Exchange of India's (NSE) mega initial public offering opened for subscription, garnering 39 per cent subscription on its first day.
Analysts predict that crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and upcoming inflation data will be the primary drivers of the Indian stock market this week, alongside foreign investor activity and domestic quarterly earnings.
The Indian rupee experienced its sharpest single-day decline in eight weeks, settling at 94.83 per dollar, primarily due to escalating crude oil prices and persistent risk-off sentiment driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and limited foreign inflows.
Analysts predict that the Indian stock market's sentiment this week will be primarily influenced by the domestic GDP data announcement, crude oil prices, and the crucial US non-farm payrolls report.
RBI's previous monetary policy was announced on September 29.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 13,138 crore from Indian equities in the first half of September, driven by heightened global uncertainty, rising crude oil prices, firm US bond yields, and a strong dollar, impacting risk appetite.
Faced with the challenging task of balancing growth and inflation, the Reserve Bank of India will take measures in its quarterly review later this month to perk up the economy and to control inflation, which rose to 0.83 per cent for the third week of September.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its key lending rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over rising energy prices, supply disruptions from the West Asia crisis, and potential inflationary pressures.
The RBI's bi-monthly policy review on June 3 will be the first after Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office on May 26.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed higher, primarily driven by bank stocks and encouraging US inflation data, which fuelled expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy. However, escalating US-Iran hostilities tempered investor sentiment, leading to some profit-taking.
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its key policy rates for the fourth consecutive time, keeping the repo rate at 5.25 per cent, while the benchmark BSE Sensex closed 152 points higher in a volatile session, recovering from an intraday dip.
The bank chiefs have also cancelled the customary media conference after the bi-annual policies.
After four consecutive months of withdrawals, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) injected Rs 20,200 crore into Indian equities in July, driven by attractive valuations, improving corporate earnings, and a more favourable global environment.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced that India's foreign exchange reserves stand at a healthy $682.3 billion as of May 29, 2026, providing approximately 11 months of import cover and strong protection against external shocks.
The policy will be presented in the backdrop of rising inflation.
Fitch Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (FY'27) to 6.9 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent, attributing the revision to robust economic growth in the June quarter and overall economic resilience. The agency also anticipates the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will raise interest rates by 0.25 per cent in October.
The Kerala Legislative Assembly has passed a motion urging the central government to completely withdraw the proposed Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on UPI transactions exceeding Rs 2,000. Chief Minister V D Satheesan and CPI MLA K Rajan highlighted concerns that the MDR would increase business costs, harm small businesses, and reduce the appeal of digital payments, while the BJP argued it would not affect general public or small merchants.
The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
The FCNR (B) stratagem relies on using public money to defend the rupee. The State subsidises foreign borrowing to attract dollars. This tool requires large-scale borrowing to make a material difference against a gross external flow of $11 billion a day. A commensurately large fiscal cost falls upon the exchequer. The ministry of finance will choose how much it is willing to spend in exchange for this round number, points out Ajay Shah.
Remarks come at a time when he is under pressure from the govt to cut interest rates.
Gold and silver are expected to remain volatile with a corrective bias as investors assess the latest flare-up in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and inflation data, which could reshape expectations for global interest rates, according to analysts.
